Monday, August 07, 2006

August's Props Betting

Time for some new Props betting!

April's picks went 5 for 6 netting $254 if you laid down a Ben Franklin on each one: Whitney Houston didn't get arrested, the iPod Shuffle is still here, the Fed raised rates by 0.25% & the PSP2 has yet to be released. The only pick that went awry was Ace Young not winning American Idol, but that was a looong shot at 40/1. Although the "male" bet cashed in after my boy Taylor Hicks won.

I guess I need to watch more TV! Online sportsbooks are overflowing with television props bets. Unfortunately, I don't watch Hell's Kitchen, The Next Top Model, Last Comic Standing, So You Think You Can Dance, etc.

Doesn't anyone watch HBO anymore? Why can't we bet on events like:

-What ethnic group will Larry David offend in the first 30 seconds of Season 6 of Curb Your Enthusiasm?
-How many "motherf*cking cocksuckers" will be uttered in Deadwood episode 30?
-How many episodes before Entourage's Johnny Drama actually gets a part in a movie?

I'd be rich. Anyways, here's the picks:

Will Communist Cuban President Fidel Castro reassume control of Cuba by October 31st, 2006?

Yes -160
No +120

Send your "Get Well Soon" cards to our buddy Fidel! Bet yes. Bodog hasn't pulled this one yet despite Cuba's VP stating he expects Castro to be back in office "within weeks." This bet has 7 weeks until it expires, plenty of time for the Commie to recover. The "fine print" is even more favorable for the "Yes" bets: If Fidel Castro passes away before October 31st, 2006, all wagers will be graded as No Action. (I'm not Communist, I swear)

Odds to win the NFL 2007 Super Bowl

Arizona Cardinals 25/1
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Dallas Cowboys
Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants
New York Jets
Oakland Raiders
Philadelphia Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Diego Chargers
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
St.Louis Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans
Washington Redskins

Stay away from any AFC team in Super Bowl future bets. They are by far the superior conference once again. Thus, it will be difficult for either the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Chargers, Dolphins, Bengals, or Broncos to make it to the Super Bowl.

For a better value, try the weaker NFC conference. The clear favorites are the Seahawks, Cowboys & Panthers. This year's sexy pick is the Cowboys with the acquisition of Terrell Owens. But stay away! They appear to be the most overrated team of all at 8/1. Do people forget how awful their defense was last year, and that Drew Bledsoe is still their quarterback?!

Take the Carolina Panthers at a modest 12/1. They may be the most balanced team in the NFL and have an excellent shot of not only making the Superbowl, but giving the AFC representative a run for their money.

Remember it's all about a good value, not who you actually think will win!

What will the FOMC decide to do with the Fed Funds rate when meeting on August 8?

Leave at 5.25% -170
Increase of .25 basis pt. +200
Increase of .50 basis pt. +500

For the first time in 2 years, futures traders believe the Fed will finally stop raising rates. While they're probably right, paying out only -170 doesn't give you enough. I'd take the +200 on another 0.25% rate hike. With probabilities on another rate hike around 35-40%, doubling your money is a great deal.

Will Microsoft's (MSFT) stock price go below $20/share in 2006?

Yes +120
No -140

No!!! While it's true that Microsoft has been struggling with Windows delays, lawsuits, and emerging competition from Google, all the downside risks appear to be already priced in the stock. MSFT current trades for ~$24. Going below $20 in 5 months would be a 20% drop. When you consider Microsoft is currently valued $250 billion as a company, that drop would equate to losing over $50 billion in market capitalization! Not gonna happen.


At 7:24 AM, Blogger Eric Bergen said...

As expected, all the money is going to the "Yes" bets as Bodog now has the line at -300. But I'd stay away as reports now have Fidel on the long road to recovery.

Also as expected, the Fed paused on the Fed Funds rate last week.

At 10:09 AM, Anonymous Steelerfan said...

no respect for the steelers!!1


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